October 30, 2015
Historically, the retail industry, a subset of the consumer discretionary sector, experiences an upswing during the winter months as holiday sales alone contribute 19% to yearly sales and Q4 earnings are generally released within the beginning of Q1. Highlighted in red is the November through February performance of the S&P Retail Select Industry Index; recession years aside, this upward trend usually holds.
October 23, 2015
This week’s Chart of the Week takes a look at the sell-off over the last month in risk credit as a direct result of global concern over China’s continued slowdown. Our chart shows the high yield bond spreads for each industry since the beginning of the year.
October 15, 2015
This week’s chart shows that current valuations across equity and fixed income markets are lower today compared to where they stood at the end of September last year. The big takeaway here is that equities broadly appear to still be cheaper than bonds.
October 8, 2015
The wait for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates seems to be endless. Unemployment has fallen below the Fed’s desired level and inflation- when adjusted for the drop in oil prices - is just under target. At the beginning of this year, many predicted September would be the right time for it to finally happen.
October 1, 2015
As oil prices oscillate around $40, market participants continue to wonder how long these low prices will persist. The decline in oil prices, due in part to strong supply growth and lower-than-expected demand growth, has caused headaches for many in the energy industry.
September 24, 2015
This week’s chart examines Markit’s Purchase Manager Index (PMI) for the manufacturing and services sectors in China. PMI serves as an indicator of economic health. A reading above 50 represents expansion while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.
September 18, 2015
This week’s chart of the week looks at the recent drop in South Korean exports, which fell by 14.7% in the 12 months ending August 31. South Korean exports have historically been a reliable and early indicator of the state of global trade, so much so that they have earned the nickname, the “canary in the coal mine” of the global economy.
September 11, 2015
On Wednesday, September 9th Apple announced the details on its latest iteration of its flagship product – the iPhone. The iPhone 6S and 6SPlus will be the ninth major iPhone announcement since the iPhone 1 was first unveiled to the world on June 29th 2007 (excluding new storage space and color variations of the same model).
September 3, 2015
Historical analysis has shown that an inverted or flattening yield curve may be a warning sign of an upcoming recession. Since the 1950s, an inverted curve has preceded seven of the last eight recessions, with spreads near zero in 1960.
August 28, 2015
Between August 17th and 25th, the U.S. equity market – as represented by the S&P 500 Index – declined 11%. The pace and magnitude of the market drop came as a shock to many and left investors pondering how they should react to this swift downdraft. While some may be looking to underlying fundamentals or economic data for guidance, one could simply point to history as an indicator.